I have long said that what we need above all else when it comes to addressing total financial meltdown is reality. A long, hard, honest look at what got us here, exactly where we are, and where we intend to go in the future.

Think of the American economy as a raging drug addict. Utilizing the AA model, if our economy is going to have a snowball's chance in hell at recovery, it's going to have to start with admitting something is terribly awry. We haven't even done that first step and are still in denial! Guess what happens to those sorts of dope fiends? Yup.

So if we can get past denial, next we have "Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity" - hint: that "Power greater than ourselves" is not the Federal Reserve.

And after we have turned ourselves over to this Power (again, not the Fed and not necessarily any regulatory agency - might I suggest the Constitution?), it's time to make amends. And boy do we have some forgiveness to ask for.

The American economy, as recovering dope fiend, will have to apologize to the global economy as a whole for eating up resources and taking advantage of the dollar's safe position. Consumption, debt, reckless spending, irresponsible government behavior, fiscal insanity - there is no short list of things to repent for. Only then can we say the economy has begun the recovery process and only then can it begin to heal - not just under the dope fiend model, under the reality model.

Oh, and can we PLEASE stop smoking the green shoots? Thanks.

Reuters on the new trend in investor confidence based on the truth. Refreshing like a slap to the face, I'd say!

After months of wishful thinking, investors are nervous again about financial markets and the world economy, and it may take a flurry of much better economic data to make them believe in a sustainable recovery.

Anxiety grew on Monday after the World Bank cut its 2009 global growth forecast, saying the world economy will contract 2.9 percent this year.

That added to a decline that has hit major markets identified with increased risk -- global stock markets, currencies such as the euro, and oil, copper, gold and other commodities.

All three recently hit multi-month highs -- U.S. stocks surged nearly 40 percent from a bear market low hit in March -- as markets bet the worst of the global financial crisis had passed and the world recession was easing.

But these moves stalled this month, leaving the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX in the red for the year at Monday's close.

The dollar has also clawed back some of the losses suffered when growing optimism sparked investors to buy the euro and higher-yielding, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar instead, while U.S. bond yields have retreated from this month's eight-month highs.

"Markets have woken up to a world where a lot of the 'green shoots' arguments are starting to look very questionable," said Citigroup technical analyst Shyam Devani in London. "The market is uncomfortable and price action is beginning to reflect that."

The next step, he said, may be "a decent pullback in stocks, commodities and yields, and possibly a complete reversal of the greenshoot arguments."

Lena Komileva, G7 economist at Tullett Prebon in London, said a stock- and commodity-market rally was only partly driven by modestly improved economic data.

Instead, she said investors bruised and bloodied by last year's Lehman Brothers collapse and the subsequent deep freeze in credit breathed a collective sigh of relief this spring when near-zero interest rates and a sea of new money from central banks helped stabilize markets and put a floor under prices.

"But stabilization is not recovery, and to have recovery we need to see the liquidity that generated the gravity-defying rally in equities and commodities and currency carry trades find its way into the financial system," she said.

Round 2 of the financial crisis is about to turn dampened investor expectations into a full-on Category 4 shitstorm; are you ready? The signs are certainly there - T-bill auction trouble, rising mortgage rates as a result, mounting concern over OMGObama's gangbang of a deficit, insiders bailing on their own stocks, need I continue?

Buh bye, green shoots, was nice to know you...