I sort of missed this (sorry, been scheming and don't have time to watch the news) but apparently there was something on Financial Armageddon that implied Panzner had switched teams and was suddenly totally into the dollar.
The New Smart Money? (FA):
In a world where those who allegedly know best are doing dumb things like betting on V-shaped recoveries, buying overvalued stocks for all the wrong reasons, and generally repeating the mistakes that helped bring about the worst financial crisis this century, its ironic that, as the Associated Press reports in "Main Street to Wall Street: We Don't Buy the Rally," at least some ordinary Americans are looking like the real "smart money":NEW YORK – Edward Shook can't resist a bull market.
He rode the one in the late 1990s and lost $350,000 in the dot-com collapse. Shaken but optimistic, he bought into the bull market that followed — and lost another $350,000 from his portfolio's peak when stocks fell to a 12-year low in early 2009.
Now the 65-year-old roofing contractor from Raleigh, N.C., says "he's getting smart for a change." Even though the Standard & Poor's 500 has climbed 68 percent since March, Shook is largely leaving the stock market "to the crooks that run" it. He's sold shares and bought bonds instead, with no regrets.
Millions of other Americans are steering the same course. After being key players in bull runs of the past, small-time investors have not only stopped buying, they're selling. The question for the new year: If the man on the street doesn't jump back in, will stocks continue to defy gravity?
So far, the market's comeback is almost entirely due to buying by professional investors at hedge funds, pension funds, banks and other institutions.
MP won't go all conspiratorial but I'm happy to, if you feel the hairs on the back of your neck standing up, don't trip, that's just the invisible hand we've known all along.
As always, the best part is the comments (I offend myself) and mind you WCV didn't realize until recently that Panzner's book was the catalyst to yours truly even getting into this financial collapse bullshit in the first place:
I confess to not having read your book yet (I will!), but I'm puzzled by your dollar-up, stocks-down forecast.
Is the endgame Federal default rather than inflation in your view?
I'm still diversified across stocks (foreign and domestic), cash (AUD and USD), and gold and miners, and I'm even considering buying an overpriced house because I think they're going to print their way out of this mess. Bonds are a disaster I think, and taking out a 30-year fixed mortgage is a great way to short Treasuries.
WCV I'll loan you my copy (and Panzner has written a few actually, not just a). Don't get pissed, Michael, Wiley gave me When Giants Fall for free ha.
Any fucking way. At some point, Panzner answered:
There are a number of variables at play, but the key point is that the outlook you cited is a one-year call. I am bearish on most assets in the short run because I believe we are in the latter stages of the deflationary phase. Theres also a large measure of leveraged speculation in most markets that will be involuntarily unwound. Longer term, I see bonds down, stocks down, and precious metals up.
And then I talked to Panzner tonight and asked the same question on WC Varones' behalf. What's up with the strong dollar policy? His short answer? It's a tactic. What else can anyone do at this point? Kliguy has some great advice on playing this ridiculous farce of a market if you understand how cracked out all of it is. That's all Panzner is advocating. You really think the dude who wrote Financial Armageddon is going to suddenly switch teams and go pro dollar? Please. WCV, aren't you the one who bought a house to short the Treasury?
It's just the game, baby. And a' down we go. Jr Deputy Accountant will be writing a book in the next few months to capitalize before a check for $50,000 turns into $5. See you fuckers on the other side, don't say we didn't try to warn you.
We all see what is happening. That's kind of why I mourned the End the Fed movement last night. It is too easily hijacked by a bitter bunch of politicians who are only pissed because their dope dealer cut them off.
If you know things are a certain way, what's wrong with manipulating that? Case in point: Panzner's temporary strong dollar policy and WCV getting a 30 year mortgage on a house (gasp).
JDA isn't a kiss and tell kind of girl so she won't tell you what she is manipulating.
you guys buy that?