Sooooo... About That Recovery
Travis Berge and Òscar Jordà have written a pretty interesting piece of work (available via the SF Fed) entitled Future Recession Risks that feeds my insatiable need for doom and gloom. If you're as hungry for bad news as I am, go check it out.
Cliff's Notes version is as follows:
LEI [Leading Economic Indicator] forecast trends indicate that the macroeconomic outlook is likely to deteriorate progressively starting sometime next summer, even if the data suggest that a renewed recession is unlikely over the next several months.
It's cool though because the paper ends with a bright side:
Of course, economic policy can strongly influence the outcome. The policies that are adopted today could play a decisive role in shaping the pace of growth.
Are we to read that to mean Bernanke still has arrows in his quiver that he hasn't yet launched? Only time will tell. Welcome to my party, boys!