Breaking News: The Recession Has Been Over For a Year!

Cleveland Fed economists aren't the only ones confused by the simple concept of continued economic illness, TPTB are smoking the recovery crack (which started with Bernanke and his green shoots) with no sign of giving up on the non-existent glimmer of hope. Making this view official, the National Bureau of Economic Research has officially declared the Great Recession over as of July 2009. I know what you're thinking America (and everyone else), what motherfucking crack data could they possibly have looked at to come to that conclusion?

No, it isn't a scanner hooked up to Bernanke's shiny head reading his wishful thoughts. It's supposedly actual data:

In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur-a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth. The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction. The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was in 1980-1982, when the Committee determined that the contraction that began in 1981 was not a continuation of the one that began in 1980, but rather a separate full recession.

The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IP). The Committee's use of these indicators in conjunction with the broad measures recognizes the issue of double-counting of sectors included in both those indicators and the broad measures. Still, a well-defined peak or trough in real sales or IP might help to determine the overall peak or trough dates, particularly if the economy-wide indicators are in conflict or do not have well-defined peaks or troughs.

As I stated last Saturday, you cannot tell me this is a recovery as a recovery would imply a somewhat-normally functioning economy with healthy (or potentially healthy) fundamentals. I may not be an economist but I am of the opinion that what we have now is fucked and yes, that's my technical analysis of the situation. This is the Bizarro World version of our former economy and you cannot promote a illegitimately socialized capitalist economy and call that "normal". At least not in America.

I call bullshit and it is disrespectful to the hard-working, well-intentioned people of this country still starving for work to say that the recession ended over a year ago and we can all run back to the mall now that the coast is clear. You fucking look me in the eye and tell me any of this is normal. If it's normal, why not kill ZIRP? If it's normal, why not turn off the presses?


The recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the National Bureau of Economic Research said on Monday.

The NBER, considered the arbiter of U.S. recessions, said its declaration did not mean the economy had "returned to operating at normal capacity" and cautioned that economic activity sometimes remains below normal well into expansion.

President Barack Obama, under pressure to speed up the pace of recovery and drive down unemployment as November congressional elections near, said the official end of the recession did not change the grim reality for many people.

"Economists may say that the recession officially ended last year," Obama said. "Obviously for the millions of people who are still out of work, people who have seen their home values decline, people who are struggling to pay their bills day to day, it's still very real for them."

The only way I buy the recession ending in July 2009 is if someone tells me that it started right back up again on August 1, 2009.

So uh, if that's not the case then shall we expect the FOMC to decide this month that the Treasury money laundering machine can be turned off? Bwhahahaha I'm not holding my breath for things to actually be better any time soon and won't be holding my breath for that either. Bitches.

Perhaps Bank of Canada's Mark Carney deserves credit for calling the end long before the NBER grew the large distorted cojones to say so as he called it over way back in July of last year. Lagging indicators my ass, Canada still has a housing bubble to pop but they're still in the process of inflating it so we'll check back to see how that works out in a few years.

Jr Deputy Accountant

Some say he’s half man half fish, others say he’s more of a seventy/thirty split. Either way he’s a fishy bastard.


wiliam said...

Right ON ......My fellow Americans when do we get our reward for all the Bank and big Corporate bailouts....all the money pisssssed down the drain by these perpatrators....Help the people and save the country....are you nuts...unthinkable...They, and we all know who they are, couldn't give a crap about we the people...Recession over...more nuts in the bunch....its just beginning so look out its coming our way quickly and it won't be very pleasant ...All stay safe....

captainkona said...

That's a respectable analysis, but you left out a few factors...

Republican businesses intentionally avoiding hiring in order to keep the unemployment rates up for political reasons.

I personally overheard an exec at Exide proclaim, after a few drinks of course, that they could operate with skeleton crews for years if it means making "Obummer" look bad.

And it's the kind of deceitful, uncaring action that has always been part of the Republican philosophy.

Wholesalers I deal with became fearful of the well hyped but never even close "Double Dip". they shed inventory in an effort to keep from getting caught with their money sitting in a warehouse.
As it turns out, my industry never even felt the recession. In fact, fiscal 2009 thru 2010 has been the best year of the eight I've been in business.
Individuals were fearful of spending large amounts too, but they didn't know why. The media just told them to be.

Not enough was spent. It created or saved 3M jobs. We needed 6M at least.
That goes back to fear. Democrats are often too meek to kick Republicans in the teeth and say we're doing this because we're the "deciders" now.
This administration has been miserably ineffective at communicating with the public and letting them know, in no uncertain terms, that Republicans are liars.

I'm sure we'll agree that Obama has not done enough to bring us out faster, but bring us out he has.
It takes no time to tear a country apart the way Bush and the Republican majority did. It takes much longer to build the way Democrats are.
But build they will, and we'll all be richer for it.


captainkona said...


Actually, that's not bad for someone who can't spell their own name right.

Aside from your sputtering, nonsensical ravings, I actually think that you have potential to shed your Teabagger stench for reality.

Here's the reality...Teabagger candidates will lose in November. Racists (Paladino), blasphemers (O'Donnell the Witch), Corporate Wall Street Fascists (Koch Bros.) and blithering idiots (Sara Shit-for-Brains) are not something American voters are likely to support.

You're fooling no one but yourselves. Dems hold on in November because moderate Republicans and Independents will not vote Tea Potty.
The Republican establishment will take their revenge on the radicals in their party.


W.C. Varones said...

I smell a delusional leftist.

Chris said...

Captain Kona has been smoking too much of the Big Islands main export.